Price technology risk before close
Architecture, data and AI maturity, technical debt. Assessed by engineers, expressed as investment risk and value creation potential.
Playbook · Chapter 04
Technology as capital allocation.
Access to AI is not the advantage. Every fund can buy the same models. The alpha is in knowing where to apply them, and how to prove the value they create.
Underwrite technology the way you underwrite anything else.
Private capital already has the right mental model: small capital buys information, information de-risks larger capital, and nothing scales without evidence. We apply that same discipline to technology: expected value before commitment, staged cheques, measured outcomes, and a stop option that is genuinely exercised.
A technology programme without a baseline is an unpriced position. We don’t hold unpriced positions.
Allocate against evidence
Interventions compete for capital on expected value, and scale only on observed and verified value. V3–V4, never V1.
Sell what you can prove
A value creation record with locked baselines and attribution is equity story material a buyer’s diligence team cannot take apart.